College Football Preview

Welcome back good old college football.  It’s nice to have you around again.  All this talk of steroids, bling, and murder makes you that much more welcoming.  Ah, the youth, the innocence, the heart.  What a wonderful world it is when college teams battle it out.  

Tomorrow marks the start of the college football season so I guess that means that the deadline for previews and predictions is tonight or early tomorrow.  For now I give you some of my predictions for the upcoming season.  The Big 10 and the SEC look extremely tough but I doubt you’ll find both title contenders coming from those conferences.  USC is again the favorite to win and, barring an upset, should be back in the title game come early January.  But who is that other team?  Now that’s the real debate isn’t it?  I’m going to go with Florida.  With Urban Meyer and the return of QB Chris Leak this might be the year Florida returns to prominence.

Conference Predictions:

ACC
Atlantic
1. Florida State                              
2. Maryland                                   
3. Clemson                                   
4. NC State                                   
5. Boston College                              
6. Wake Forest

Coastal     
1. Miami
2. Virginia Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. Virginia
5. North Carolina
6. Duke
Champions: Miami
Notes:  On paper this conference looks pretty strong but don’t let the names in the Atlantic division fool you.  Florida State is the only “good” team on that side of the conference.  Maryland, Clemson, and NC State will probably be solid but not near good enough to contend for the title.  Boston College needs a year to adjust after coming from the weak Big East.  The Coastal division sports the conference’s two toughest teams: Miami and Virginia Tech.  The winner of that game should go on to play in the ACC Championship game later this year.  Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick might be the X-factor in this conference.  If he performs well then VT could thwart Miami’s hope of an ACC title.  If not then this conference is Miami’s for the taking.

Big 12
North
1. Nebraska                                   
2. Missouri                                   
3. Iowa State                                        
4. Kansas State
5. Colorado                                   
6. Kansas

South
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas A&M
4. Texas Tech
5. Oklahoma State
6. Baylor
Champions: Texas
Notes:  Once again the North division is weak.  Nebraska is the strongest with Callahan at the helm.  But Mizzou, Iowa State, or K-State could all sneak into the Big 12 title game if they win one or two games they’re not supposed to win.  The South, meanwhile might have gotten tougher with Texas’ improvement.  Mack Brown returns QB Vince Young but the loss of LB Derrick Johnson will be tougher to compensate for than the Longhorns realize.  Oklahoma lost too much to stay on top (especially QB Jason White) but never ever count out Bob Stoops.  Another solid season is in front of Sooners.  In fact, they’ll probably still beat Texas when they get together later this season.  But too many tough games will give Oklahoma too many problems to win the Big 12.  Look for A&M QB Reggie McNeal to steal some media attention away from Longhorns QB Vince Young.  He has all the tools except for a strong supporting cast.

Big East
1. Louisville
2. Pittsburgh
3. West Virginia
4. Rutgers
5. Syracuse
6. Cincinnati
7. USF
Notes:  Now I introduce you to the weakest of the BCS conferences.  It’s a good thing Louisville joined or it might not even be better than the WAC.  Look for Louisville’s and QB Brian Brohm’s offense to tear through the Big East in unchallenged form.  We could even see Louisville in the National Championship this year if it can beat Oregon, they’re biggest test, in a few weeks.  Pittsburgh and West Virginia should end up with winning seasons again.  Rutgers will surprise some people.  Look for them to be competitive with teams like Pittsburgh and WV.  Syracuse could be solid but they have too many holes and question marks to be taken too seriously.  Cincinnati and USF should just start thinking about next year.

Big Ten
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Purdue
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Indiana
Notes:  Here we may have the most solid conference in the country through and through.  Ohio State has sophomore sensation Ted Ginn to carry them through the conference.  QBs Justin Zwick and Troy Smith will be more than adequate to complement Ginn through the season.  Purdue somehow misses both Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule.  They are solid enough to be in the top four because of that fact alone.  Iowa has to prove, yet again, that it belongs with the nation’s elite.  Apologies to the Hawkeyes for not believing in you year after year.  Michigan looks like it could be another elite team along with Ohio State.  QB Chad Henne is phenomenal but could have a problem after the departure of WR Braylon Edwards.  A lot of Michigan’s success depends on whether Henne will be able to deliver the ball into his receiver’s hands.  Joe Paterno looks like he’s ready to build Penn State into a bowl team again.  Wisconsin has to replace too many good players on the defensive side of the ball (especially DE Erasmus James) and will fall accordingly.  Last year’s 9-0 start won’t happen this year.  

Pac-10
1. USC
2. California
3. Arizona State
4. Oregon
5. UCLA
6. Washington State
7. Oregon State
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona
Notes:  Other than USC, the Pac-10 is hard to gauge.  The Trojans should win the conference again even with the loss of offensive coordinator Norm Chow.  The Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush force is the toughest force in the nation and Pac-10 teams will feel that right away.  California, Arizona State, and Oregon all are very solid.  Cal has phenom RB Marshawn Lynch and head coach Jeff Tedford.  ASU QB Sam Keller has the credentials to be a top name quarterback especially after watching Andrew Walters for two years and WR Derek Hagan is the best wide receiver in the conference.  Oregon is extremely athletic and will be able to finally keep up with the high-powered Pac-10 offenses.  The 2, 3, 4 places could shuffle in any order between those three teams.  UCLA and Washington State look like they could find themselves in a bowl game this winter.  Not even Tyrone Willingham will be able to pull Washington out of its funk this year.

SEC
Eastern
1. Florida                                   
2. Tennessee                                    
3. South Carolina                              
4. Georgia                                   
5. Vanderbilt                                   
6. Kentucky

Western
1. Auburn
2. LSU          
3. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Mississippi St.
Champions: Florida
Notes:  So, you ask, which conference has the most National Title contenders?  Answer: the SEC.  Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia all could be contenders in a lot of people’s eyes.  Georgia doesn’t seem to have enough to compete with the other four in my eyes.  But those other four should be darn good.  Auburn is still underrated (just like last year) even though they lost Campbell, Williams, and Brown.  LSU is the overall favorite in the West and while they might look like the stronger team right now I bet Auburn pulls it out in the end.  Also, watch out for ‘Bama.  They’re vastly improved and should crack the top 25 after a few weeks.  Ole Miss brings in Ed Orgeron to knock some sense into the players.  His addition should add a couple of wins for Ole Miss.  On the East, Florida and Tennessee are all the rave.  If Leak transitions to Meyer’s offense then that Florida O should be hard to stop.  Tennessee is solid all around.  They’re exceptional defense should be their strong point this season.  Steve Spurrier returns to the college ranks as the coach of SC.  Don’t be surprised if he makes things interesting with some of the big name teams.  

The Heisman Race:
College football is loaded with outstanding running backs this year.  From powerhouse USC running back Reggie Bush to non-BCS Memphis running back DeAngelo Williams look for a lot of breakaway TD runs.  That yards-per-carry stat might bring home a Heisman.  My top five to start the season:

1. Matt Leinart- Until he proves otherwise he should be at the top of everyone’s list.
2. Adrian Peterson- Without Jason White at the helm, the spotlight will be on Peterson.
3. Reggie Bush- The most explosive player in college football.  Period.
4. DeAngelo Williams- Legit shot at 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this year.
5. Chris Leak- Could turn into a superstar with Urban Meyer calling the shots.

On the Radar: Vince Young, Reggie McNeal, Marshawn Lynch, Ted Ginn, Omar Jacobs

The BCS Bowls:

So who will be high rolling in January?  I can’t give you 100% accuracy.  But I can tell you that Duke won’t be one of them.  It’s survival of the fittest; and in this universe only eight teams will survive to make it to a BCS game.  Read ‘em and weep.

Rose Bowl (National Championship)- USC over Florida
Orange Bowl- Miami over Auburn
Sugar Bowl- Ohio State over Virginia Tech
Fiesta Bowl- Texas over Louisville

Kyle Orton

The Chicago Bears definitely seem to be in a bind.  I’m starting to wonder whether former first-round pick Rex Grossman will ever play more than half of a season in the NFL.  After he went down earlier this preseason the Bears were looking for someone else to fill that spot; and it looks like they found someone.  Kyle Orton, fourth-round pick of this year’s draft, has been named the starter for the season opener.  While he has been pretty solid this preseason it still probably spells even more bad news for the Bears this season.  

Rookie quarterbacks hardly ever succeed.  For every Ben Roethlisberger there’s five Ryan Leafs.  Now I’m not saying that Orton is going to be horrendous, but I am saying that he’s going to be inconsistent at best.  I remember watching this kid in college and thinking that he was the best QB in the nation last year after Purdue’s first four games.  And then he fumbled.  Literally.  When Wisconsin defensive end Erasmus James hit him and made him fumble Orton’s and Purdue’s season took a 180.  After that game Orton was never the same.  He only showed flashes of what he could do and was considered by some to be ordinary.

So now what am I supposed to expect from Orton after his jump to the pros?  It’s hard for me to justify thinking anything else than what he has showed me in the past.  The fact of the matter is that he’s inconsistent.  I expect some solid performances from Orton but I also expect some hard to watch routines.  Not to mention he doesn’t have an experienced running back to take the load off his shoulders.  Cedric Benson won’t be bad but I doubt that the Bears’ offense can be too efficient with a rookie QB and RB.  If you think Jake Plummer is hard to watch in Denver then you’re going to want to turn your eyes away from the Orton Show in Chicago.  

Remember T.O.

If anyone thinks that Terrell Owens is going to play half-heartedly this season then that person better think again.  T.O. scored a TD on the first play from scrimmage against the Bengals last night.  (I thought about dropping T.O. in my fantasy draft board but now I think I’ll leave him up there with Randy Moss.)  After all the media hoopla going around the Eagles camp everyone seems to have forgotten how dangerous Owens really is.  Let’s not forget that this guy is a premiere receiver regardless of what Owens does outside of Sunday.  His mastery of the receiver position is what we should be focusing on not his silly camouflage that he wears to training camp.  Sorry Andy Reid there’s nothing you can do about this guy.  If you don’t have him then you can forget about a Super Bowl ring.

Inside Felipe's Head

Situation: The Giants are beating the Phillies 5-0 at home in the top of the 9th.  Noah Lowry has been cruising through the game (minus the 7th inning).  To start the 9th he strikes out Jimmy Rollins then gets Jason Michaels to fly out to center.  He's thrown 123 pitches when Bobby Abreu walks to the dish.  Lowry goes 2-2 on Abreu before Abreu hits a ground ball behind 2nd base that he beats out for infield single despite a nice play by Omar Vizquel.  Giants manager, Felipe Alou, then has the gall to take out his stellar young pitcher who has thrown a magnificent game.

Can somebody tell me what Alou was thinking?  Why would he take out a pitcher who has been  dominating and rely on one of the worst bullpens in baseball to finish the job?  It's not like this was a 1-run or 2-run game and Lowry was in danger of getting the loss.  San Francisco had a 5-run margin.  If someone hits a grand slam off of Lowry with two outs in the 9th then take him out (yes, that's a slight exaggeration).  But until someone finds a way to hit a 5-run homer then you have to leave him in.  Yes, Felipe, you have to leave him in even with a runner on first and two outs.

I realize that Lowry was close to 130 pitches for the night, but what I also realize is that Lowry struck out Rollins and had Abreu on the ropes in the 9th inning.  He clearly was not tired.  Not to mention the two guys up next went a combined 0 for 5 with two strikeouts against Lowry earlier in the game.  You're telling me he can't end this game within the next two batters?

Alou's decision was an utter disgrace.  He showed a lack of confidence in a young pitcher who did every single thing he could.  (Lowry not only pitched extremely well but he also had a sacrifice bunt and an RBI sacrifice fly.)  Instead Alou trusted a faulty bullpen that would blow a lead to a minor league team.  I've quietly questioned Alou's decision-making all year but this latest gaffe has pushed my patience with him past its limit.  Maybe he should quit worrying so much about a talk show host's flippant generalizations and start worrying more about the game of baseball and how it should be played.    

What about Raffy?

I loved Rafael Palmeiro. I loved how he was so underappreciated yet still never ceased to be productive. I loved how he crawled his way to 9th on the all time home run list and how he got to 3,000 hits without anyone noticing. But the past couple of days have unraveled something that made me question my devotion for baseball's quietest slugger. He tested positive for steroids. But it wasn't just that he tested positive; it's that he vehemently testified in court that he never used them. It's that he was on the frontline for combating the problem of steroid use in the MLB. It's that he was perhaps the one player in all of baseball that we could run to and say "look, he's doing it without any help." Now who are we supposed to go to? With Palmeiro's retirement coming up his hall of fame chances are now much more in jeopardy than they use to be.
Baseball is full of numbers. The Hall of Fame bases some of it's members on these magic numbers. If you hit 500 home runs you're in the Hall. If you get 3,000 hits you're in the Hall. There was no debating that. No one has hit 500 home runs and been eligible for the Hall of Fame (retired five years) who hasn't been inducted. And no one who has 3,000 hits and been eligible has been denied either (besides Pete Rose who, of course, was banned for betting on the game). Well Palmeiro has 569 home runs and 3,018 hits. When he got his 3,000 hit earlier this year it was sort of like he was getting that extra insurance just in case. Only three other players in the history of the game can claim 500 home runs and 3,000 hits to their resume: Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray. By that standard alone Palmeiro should be in with no contest, right?
One of the first questions that needs to be answered is how long has Palmeiro been taking steroids. If this is a career consuming practice then Palmeiro's Hall rights should be revoked. But if this was a mistake, a one time thing then I think we can forgive him. (George Brett is in the Hall after his pine tar incident and Sammy Sosa will probably be in the hall of fame despite his infamous corked bat incident.) The problem is that we may never know. What we do know now is that Palmeiro tested positive for stanozolol, a drug that isn't found in over the counter supplements. This means that Palmeiro would probably have to know that he was taking it, contrary to what he said. I have a theory, though. Palmeiro had never done steroids before testifying in front a grand jury. He started taking them afterwards, and just until he got his 3,000th hit. My guess is that Palmeiro wanted to get 3,000 hits before his body gave out and steroids was the best way to do that. He was just unlucky that he was randomly chosen to be tested.
This type of theory at least makes me feel a little bit better even if it isn't true. It means that a little over 2,900 of his hits and 550 of his home runs were legitimate. No, it doesn't make Palmeiro's actions right but it doesn't put into question his past accomplishments. If my theory is true I say give him a pass to the Hall of Fame. Anything else and I'll have to evaluate it to find out what I think.

MLB 2nd Half Wish List

Here are ten things I’d like to see in the 2^nd half of the MLB season:

10) Mark Teixeira homer from both sides of the plate in the same game
Teixeira hit his first home run right-handed all season in the all-star game. Now that I know he can do it both ways, I’d like to see him do it both ways in one game. I know it ain’t easy but I also know he’s capable.

9) Rafael Palmeiro catch fire and hit 40 HRs
I think he’s at 15 right now so it would take an Albert Pujols second half for Palmeiro to hit 40. This guy is one of the most underappreciated and underrated baseball players ever; I just want him to get some respect for once.

8) Scott Podsednik steal 100 bases
Sometimes I long for the days of small ball and gritty play to come back. Other times I love watching the long ball. But if I can have a steal 100 bases and a couple of guys hit over 50 home runs all in the same year then I’d be more than content.

7) Barry Bonds come back and lead the Giants to an NL West title
All this talk about Bonds not coming back this year is making me sad. I want him to come back and lead the Giants to the NL West title. If he did wouldn’t you have to at least consider him for MVP even though he was out for much of the season?

6) Derrek Lee win the triple crown
This is another one of those things that I wish for constantly and Lee is in one of the best positions to do it in recent memory. I only hope that if he does it he keeps his production up in later years. It’d be horrible if this was a fluke season for him.

5) Neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees in the World Series
This is something I’m going to be wishing for awhile. Those high market, spend-happy juggernauts are really getting on my nerves. I want to see grit and heart win a world series title, not money and power. Furthermore I’d like to see…

4) Boston and New York battle for one playoff spot.
It would hardly be the playoffs without at least one of these two teams playing in the postseason. But really, I’m getting tired of both these teams hogging up the postseason headlines. Let’s see the A’s, O’s, or Twinkies in October for once, and better yet…

3) The Nationals make a trip to the World Series
How’s this for a story? On the verge of the entire franchise being eliminated the Expos are transferred from Montreal to D.C. The next year they go from worst to first with a world series berth.

2) Johnny Damon hit for 56 straight games
I wish for someone to hit DiMaggio’s mark every year but it never happens. Damon’s climbing towards thirty so he seems to be the likely guy to challenge this year. Of course thirty games is only half way there. Good luck Damon. (I realize that his hitting streak is over now, but at the time I wrote it his streak was still in tact.)

1) Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens throw no-hitters in the same game.
How amazing would that be? Somehow the Astros would scrap out a run. Maybe a reach on an error, a stolen base, a sacrifice bunt, and a sacrifice fly; of course I know that I’m reaching but boy would it be fun.