Preliminary Big Dance Breakdown

After a month and a half of technical difficulties and such I’m finally back. I’m trying to make-do with what I’ve got (and it’s not much). So apologies in advance if the updates aren’t very frequent.

Now that we have that out of the way, it’s time to get back to sports. Here’s my first look at the field of 65 (by conference). An asterisked team is who I think will be one of the teams to play in the “play-in” game for the right to face probably Duke or Connecticut. Also, these predictions are a combination of how teams have done so far and of their future potential. This will explain, hopefully, the instances where I have second place teams of one-bid conferences in the Big Dance instead of the first place teams (see the Northeast Conference). Additionally only three objective rules were used to determine these teams:

1) If a team wins its division then it gains entry,

2) If a team is in the top 30 in RPI then it gains entry, and

3) If a team does not win its division and is not the top 100 in RPI then it is not eligible for entry.

All other decisions were made based on pure analysis and subjective opinion. I’ve also included bubble teams at the end. Games through February 1^st were used for selection.

America East (1)- Albany (13-8)

Atlantic 10 (2)- George Washington (16-1), Temple (12-7)

ACC (5)- Duke (20-1), NC State (17-4), Maryland (14-5), Boston College (16-5), North Carolina (12-5)

Atlantic Sun (1)- Lipscomb (13-7)

Big 12 (5)- Texas (18-3), Colorado (15-3), Oklahoma (14-4), Iowa State (13-7), Kansas (14-6)

Big East (8)- West Virginia (16-4), Connecticut (19-1), Villanova (16-2), Pittsburgh (17-2), Georgetown (15-4), Cincinnati (15-7), Marquette (16-6), Syracuse (16-6)

Big Sky (1)- Northern Arizona (15-6)

Big South (1)- Winthrop (14-5)

Big Ten (7)- Illinois (20-2), Michigan (16-3), Michigan State (16-5), Iowa (17-5), Wisconsin (15-6), Ohio State (15-3), Indiana (13-5)

Big West (1)- UC Irvine (12-8)

Colonial Athletic Association (2)- Old Dominion (15-6), George Mason (15-5)

CUSA (2)- Memphis (20-2), UAB (15-4)

Horizon (1)- Wisc. Milwaukee (16-4)

Ivy (1)- Penn (10-6)

MAAC (1)- Iona (15-4)

MCC (1)- IUPUI (13-7)

MAC (1)- Akron (16-4)

MEAC (1)- Delaware State (11-10)*

MVC (4)- Northern Iowa (19-4), Creighton (15-5), Wichita State (18-5), Southern Illinois (16-6)

MWC (2)- San Diego State (14-6)

Northeast Conference (1)- Central Conn (11-7)

OVC (1)- Murray State (15-5)

Pac-10 (4)- UCLA (17-4), Arizona (13-7), Washington (16-4), California (12-6)

Patriot (1) - Bucknell (17-3)

SEC (5)- Tennessee (15-3), Florida (19-2), LSU (15-5), Kentucky (15-6), Vanderbilt (12-6)

Southern Conference (1)- Davidson (13-7)

Southland Conference (1)- Northwestern St. (13-6)

SWAC (1)- Southern (10-10)*

Sun Belt (1)- Western Kentucky (16-5)

WCC (1)- Gonzaga (17-3)

WAC (1)- Utah State (15-4)

Bubble Teams (in no particular order)

Seton Hall (13-6)

Xavier (13-5)

Florida State (13-6)

Clemson (14-8)

Miami-FL (14-8)

Nebraska (14-6)

Kansas State (12-7)

Louisville (14-7)

Montana (16-3)

Birmingham Southern (16-5)

Pacific (15-6)

Hofstra (15-4)

Virginia Commonwealth (15-5)

Old Dominion (15-7)

Houston (12-6)

Manhattan (13-7)

Kent State (14-6)

Missouri State (14-6)

Bradley (13-7)

BYU (12-6)

Stanford (11-7)

Alabama (12-8)

Arkansas (15-6)

Georgia (14-8)

Nevada (15-5)

Louisiana Tech (13-8)

Air Force (18-3)