College Football Comments: Week 13

Not a whole lot of changing happened in this week’s top 25.  Fresno State was the only team that had any type of movement that was notable.  It was a darn shame that they lost but I guess that’s just college football for you.  Right now it looks like USC and Texas are headed to Rose Bowl, barring major upsets.  Virginia Tech should handle Florida State and head to the Orange Bowl and LSU should win the SEC championship game against Georgia to go to the Sugar Bowl. Penn State is guaranteed a BCS bid for winning the Big Ten as is West Virginia for winning the Big East.  That leaves two open spots for the BCS.  The Fiesta Bowl, because of losing Texas to the Rose Bowl, will get the first pick and will almost assuredly take Notre Dame.  The Orange Bowl then will almost assuredly take Penn State.  The Fiesta then gets the next pick.  They won’t take West Virginia because of their lack of notoriety.  This means that the Fiesta will take an at-large team.  The smart choice comes down to three teams right now: Auburn, Ohio State, and Oregon.  Geography probably eliminates Auburn as a choice.  So it comes down to Ohio State and Oregon.  The Buckeyes have two losses but they are to the number 2 and 3 teams in the nation by very slim margins.  The Ducks have only one loss but it was to USC by 32.  Ohio State has been to the Fiesta Bowl two of the past three years which means that they might want some variety and the Fiesta has tie-ins with the Pac-10 which could give the Ducks some leverage (not to mention last year’s 1-loss Pac-10 team, Cal, got snubbed from the BCS).  What it comes down to though is that a Notre Dame-Ohio State match-up would have much more national appeal than a Notre Dame-Oregon game would (read: more $$$).  If I had to pick I would say that Ohio State gets the spot even though almost everything besides the money says that Oregon should probably get an invite.

My Top 25
1. (1) USC 11-0
2. (2) Texas 11-0
3. (3) Penn State 10-1
4. (4) LSU 10-1
5. (5) Virginia Tech 10-1
6. (6) Ohio State 9-2
7. (7) Oregon 10-1
8. (8) Auburn 9-2
9. (10) Notre Dame 9-2
10. (11) Miami 9-2
11. (13) Georgia 9-2
12. (15) UCLA 9-1
13. (12) Alabama 9-2
14. (14) West Virginia 9-1
15. (16) TCU 10-1
16. (17) Louisville 8-2
17. (18) Boston College 8-3
18. (19) Wisconsin 9-3
19. (21) Texas Tech 9-2
20. (9) Fresno State 8-3
21. (23) Florida 8-3
22. (22) Michigan 7-4
23. (20) Georgia Tech 7-4
24. (NR) Iowa 7-4
25. (NR) Clemson 7-4

BCS Outlook
Rose: USC vs. Texas
Orange: Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Fiesta: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

What if USC loses?  Texas?  Both?
If USC Loses
Rose: Texas vs. Penn State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

If Texas Loses
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: Colorado vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

If Both Lose
Rose: Penn State vs. LSU*
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Fiesta: Colorado vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
*It depends on the nature of USC’s loss.  If it’s a very close game then USC still might get a chance to play in the national championship.