Going Bowling Part 2

Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl
California vs. BYU
California: The offense is potentially dangerous but notoriously inconsistent.  Marshawn Lynch is one of the most explosive backs in the country when healthy and backup RB Justin Forsett needs 38 yards to make the Bears have a pair of 1,000 yard runners.  The offensive line is maybe the best in the Pac-10 and DeSean Jackson gives the Bears a receiving threat downfield.  The real question is whether the QB spot will be consistent.  Third string QB Steve Levy replaced inconsistent Joe Ayoob against Stanford and led Cal to a win.  If Levy proves to be competent then the Bears should be fine.

BYU: The offense is pretty good.  QB John Beck is outstanding.  He threw 24 TDs for over 3,300 yards and led an underachieving BYU team to a bowl berth.  But the defense and special teams can be shaky.  In order for BYU to pull out a victory they are going to need to pass the ball very effectively.  Cal’s defense held opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and even though BYU can run the ball I don’t think they’ll be able to run it effectively against Cal.  If the Cougars can beat the Bears’ blitz packages then they’ll stay in the game.

Bottom Line: Give Cal coach Jeff Tedford enough time to prepare for a game and he’ll beat you.  I expect that to happen here.  California 31, BYU 24

Poinsettia Bowl
Colorado State vs. Navy
Colorado State: They have played so horrible lately.  Here are their last three games: a narrow escape against then 2-8 UNLV, a blowout loss to San Diego State, and a blowout loss to TCU.  Needless to say, CSU hasn’t been playing very good football lately.  However, they have shown that they can throw the ball plus they have a 1,000 yard rusher.  I would be surprised if they didn’t put up some points against an average Navy defense.

Navy: Run, run, run.  The option is the Midshipmen’s strength and will be used most of the time against the Rams.  Navy has the number one rushing offense in the nation so it should be no surprise to see Navy chewing up the clock and some decent yardage against the 104th ranked rushing defense in the nation.  The Rams have played against the option attack before when they played Air Force earlier in the year, and promptly smoked them.  I think this means that Navy QB Lamar Owens is going to have to make some plays with his arm not just his legs.

Bottom Line: The Rams have looked so inept lately that it’s hard for me to see how they will compete with Navy.  They won’t stop the option and they won’t stop Navy.  Navy 31, Colorado State 17

Fort Worth Bowl
Kansas vs. Houston
Does anyone actually care about this game?  It gets a whole day to itself but no one outside of Kansas or Houston will watch.  Kansas doesn’t have a good QB nor do they have a good running game.  Houston has shown that it can throw the ball, albeit against inferior competition.  Kansas’ last three wins have been impressive but I don’t think they have enough offense to compete with Houston.

Bottom Line: Even though Kansas has a pretty good defense, their offense isn’t good enough to hang with Houston.  Houston 20, Kansas 10

Going Bowling Part 1

Bowling is here!  No not the kind with spares and strikes.  I’m talking touchdowns, interceptions, oranges, and especially roses.  In fact this year college football is more about the roses than anything else.  The BCS finally did something right (albeit not everything) when it matched up the two lone undefeated teams for the national championship game at the Rose Bowl.  But before we get to treat ourselves to another “Game of the Century” we get to enjoy some undercard bouts that should be pretty entertaining: Texas Tech-Auburn in the Cotton, Notre Dame-Ohio State in the Fiesta, Miami-LSU in the Peach, and Oregon-Oklahoma in the Holiday.  And even before those we have some minor bowl games with, well let’s face it, bad teams.  Kansas-Houston?  Southern Miss-Arkansas State?  South Florida-NC State?  Who really wants to watch these games?  That’s the problem with having 28 bowl games.  Not-so-good teams get to make December appearances so that revenue will increase.  Almost half of NCAA division 1-A teams get postseason berths.  Inevitably that means a good team is going to have to face an opponent that seems extremely unworthy.  Arizona State-Rutgers?  I shudder at the thought.  Unfortunately there’s not a whole lot to be done about the situation.  Instead we should just try to enjoy the intriguing match-ups that we’re given.  That’s what I’m going to do at least.  Without further adieu, here’s the first batch of predictions for the first batch of bowl games.

New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State
Arkansas State:  It’s a shame that Southern Miss had to be delegated here to play against an Arkansas State team that barely won the Sun Belt.  ASU was blown out by Army in the second to the last game of the season and by Middle Tennessee State.  This isn’t exactly an impressive resume.  But they do have a slim margin of hope.  Their running game is good.  Starter Antonio Warren averaged 6.3 YPC and backup Shermar Bracey averaged 7.1.  If they can run the ball effectively this should open up some opportunities for QB Nick Noce, who isn’t incompetent, to make some plays.  

Southern Miss: While the Golden Eagles don’t have the rushing game that the Indians do, just about every other facet of their game is better than Arkansas State’s.  QB Dustin Almond threw for 21 TDs and over 2,600 yards.  Plus they have LB Kevis Coley who could give the Indians’ running game fits.  They played Alabama and NC State tough early in the season so I see no reason why Southern Miss shouldn’t easily handle a one-dimensional Arkansas State team.  

Bottom Line: I can’t imagine this game being close.  Every time I think Arkansas State has a chance I remember they lost to Army by 28.  Southern Miss 37, Arkansas State 7

GMAC Bowl
UTEP vs. Toledo
The diagnosis for this game is just about the same for both teams.  Explosive offensives combined with often inept defensives will make the guy who runs the scoreboard busy for most of the game.  UTEP QB Jordan Palmer and Toledo QB Bruce Gradkowski have had outstanding seasons and both are being scouted by the NFL.  The team that establishes its running game the best will probably be the team that ends up winning.  UTEP has dropped its last two games and Toledo, because of that crushing defeat to Northern Illinois, lost its chance to go to the MAC Championship game.  Both will be out to save their seasons.  Also, the GMAC Bowl has been relatively competitive and has a history of giving the fans close, exciting games.  This year’s game should be no different.  UTEP has a great team with a great coach (Mike Price) however I think Gradkowski’s leadership and a better Toledo running game will launch the Rockets over the Miners.

Bottom Line: Watch the game if you want to see the scoreboard being lit up.  Toledo should prevail in the end.  Toledo 42, UTEP 38

Big Ten Season Awards

Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year
Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin RB- With so many candidates it’s difficult to single out just one guy over everyone else.  If there is a guy to single out, though, it’s Calhoun.  He led the Big Ten in rushing (a monumental feat considering the slew of talent at the RB position) with 1,423, touchdowns scored with 23, all-purpose yards, and all-purpose yards per game.  Not only was he an exceptional runner but he also had 52 catches for 563 yards receiving.

Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year
A.J. Hawk, Ohio State LB- A fearless player that was the leader of the best linebacking core in the country (Hawk, Schlegel, and Carpenter), Hawk also had the numbers to prove his tenacity.  He had 109 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and 13 tackles for a loss.  If you watched him against Texas during the second week of the season then you’d understand why he’s here.  Apologies to Penn State LB, Paul Posluszny who was a hair behind Hawk.

Big Ten MVP
Michael Robinson, Penn State QB- He is the main reason why Penn State is two-extra-seconds-against-Michigan away from being considered for the national championship game.  He’s a Vince Young-type QB who can beat you with his arms or legs.  It’s too bad Robinson lacked the same quality of a supporting cast that Young had.  The numbers on him aren’t spectacular (they’re still good: 11 rushing TDs, 16 passing TDs), but his leadership skills are undeniable.  Without Robinson, Penn State is playing in the Alamo Bowl, not the Orange Bowl.

1st Team All-Big Ten
QB- Michael Robinson, Penn State
RB- Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin
RB- Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota
WR- James Hardy, Indiana
WR- Jason Avant, Michigan
K- Josh Huston, Ohio State

DL- Tamba Hali, Penn State
DL- Rob Ninkovich, Purdue
LB- A.J. Hawk, Ohio State
LB- Paul Posluszny, Penn State
DB- Alan Zemaitis, Penn State
DB- Marquice Cole, Northwestern

2nd Team All-Big Ten
QB- Brett Basanez, Northwestern
RB- Tyrell Sutton, Northwestern
RB- Gary Russell, Minnesota
WR- Dorien Bryant, Purdue
WR- Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
K- Kyle Schlicher, Iowa

DL- Victor Adeyanju, Indiana
DL- Kenny Iwebema, Iowa
LB- Chad Greenway, Iowa
LB- Tim McGarigle, Northwestern
DB- Eric Smith, Michigan State
DB- Grant Mason, Michigan

Big East Season Awards

Big East Offensive Player of the Year
Michael Bush, Louisville RB- One could make a case for teammate Brian Brohm or South Florida RB Andre Hall but the numbers that Bush put up were simply amazing.  He scored 24 touchdowns (8 more than the runner up) and led the league averaging almost 144 all-purpose yards per game.  His ability to find the end zone was nothing short of spectacular.

Big East Defensive Player of the Year
Elvis Dumervil, Louisville DE- No one in the Big East comes close to touching him.  Dumervil notched an incredible 20 sacks, had an astounding 23 tackles for a loss, and forced an eye-popping 10 fumbles (he led the league in all those categories of course).  Not only was his season one of the best individual performances in his conference but it was also one of the best in the country.

Big East MVP
Andre Hall, South Florida RB- He was the main reason why South Florida was able to compete in the Big East this year.  With major questions at QB he fueled what would have been a completely inept offense without him.  He led the league with 1528 all-purpose yards and 1256 rushing yards and he led South Florida to the Meineke Car Care Bowl a year after finishing 4-7 while in the Conference USA.  

1st Team All-Big East
QB- Brian Brohm, Louisville
RB- Michael Bush, Louisville
RB- Andre Hall, South Florida
WR- Greg Lee, Pittsburgh
WR- Joshua Tinch, Louisville
K- Arthur Carmody, Louisville

DL- Elvis Dumervil, Louisville
DL- Ryan Neill, Rutgers
LB- H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh
LB- Stephen Nicholas, South Florida
DB- Anthony Smith, Syracuse
DB- Darius Butler, Connecticut

2nd Team All-Big East
QB- Pat White, West Virginia
RB- Steve Slaton, West Virginia
RB- Raymell Rice, Rutgers
WR- Mario Urrutia, Louisville
WR- Montrell Jones, Louisville
K- Jeremy Ito, Rutgers

DL- Ramel Meekins, Rutgers
DL- Ryan Lacasse, Syracuse
LB- Ben Moffitt, South Florida
LB- Nate Harris, Louisville
DB- Dee McCann, West Virginia
DB- Mike Mickens, Cincinnati

ACC Season Awards

Over the next couple weeks I will be handing out my awards for the 2005 college football season.  First, I’ll focus on each conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Non-BCS, Pac 10, and SEC) then I’ll switch to national awards.  Finally I’ll have some bowl predictions and at the end I’ll release my final top 25.  This week, the ACC:

ACC Offensive Player of the Year
Marcus Vick, Virginia Tech QB- Vick almost wins this by default.  He was the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the ACC, a conference that was sometimes inept on the offensive end.  He led the conference in passing efficiency, ran for 370 yards, threw 15 TD passes, and ran for 6 more.  Best game: vs. West Virginia, was 15-17 for 177 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, had 12 carries for 74 yards and 1 TD.

Co-ACC Defensive Players of the Year
Mario Williams, North Carolina State DE- Virginia Tech boasted the best defense in the ACC with players like Jimmy Williams, Vince Hall, and Daryl Tapp.  But Williams was one of the toughest forces in the country on the line.  He led the ACC with a dominating 13 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss.  

Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech CB- Don’t let the stats deceive you.  (Williams only had 1 interception and 41 tackles.)  He’s so good that ACC QBs simply refused to throw to his side of the field.  At 6’1” NFL scouts are drooling over the opportunity to draft this guy.  It might be awhile before we see a corner make QBs scared like this again.

ACC MVP
Marcus Vick, Virginia Tech QB- Yes he had that horrendous game against Miami, but there was no other player in the ACC that meant as much to his team as Vick.  He still has a way to go if he wants to be considered an MVP on a national level, but in a conference like the ACC there’s no question that a 10-2 season wouldn’t be possible if Vick wasn’t there.
Runners Up: Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson QB, Kyle Wright, Miami QB, Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech WR, Jimmy Williams, CB Virginia Tech

All-ACC 1st Team
QB- Marcus Vick, Virginia Tech
RB- Chris Barclay, Wake Forest
RB- Lance Ball, Maryland
WR- Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
WR- Deyon Williams, Virginia
K- Jad Dean, Clemson, Clemson

DL- Mario Williams, North Carolina State
DL- Darryl Tapp, Virginia Tech
LB- Kai Parham, Virginia Tech
LB- D’Qwell Jackson, Maryland
DB- Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
DB- Tye Hill, Clemson

All-ACC 2nd Team
QB- Kyle Wright, Miami
RB- P.J. Daniels, Georgia Tech
RB- James Davis, Clemson
WR- Chansi Stuckey, Clemson
WR- Vernon Davis, Maryland
K- Brandon Pace, Virginia Tech

DL- Manny Lawson, North Carolina State
DL- Mathias Kiwanuka, Boston College
LB- A.J. Nicholson, Florida State
LB- Stephen Tulloch, North Carolina State
DB- Josh Gattis, Wake Forest
DB- Marcus Hamilton, Virginia Tech

College Football Comments: Week 13

Not a whole lot of changing happened in this week’s top 25.  Fresno State was the only team that had any type of movement that was notable.  It was a darn shame that they lost but I guess that’s just college football for you.  Right now it looks like USC and Texas are headed to Rose Bowl, barring major upsets.  Virginia Tech should handle Florida State and head to the Orange Bowl and LSU should win the SEC championship game against Georgia to go to the Sugar Bowl. Penn State is guaranteed a BCS bid for winning the Big Ten as is West Virginia for winning the Big East.  That leaves two open spots for the BCS.  The Fiesta Bowl, because of losing Texas to the Rose Bowl, will get the first pick and will almost assuredly take Notre Dame.  The Orange Bowl then will almost assuredly take Penn State.  The Fiesta then gets the next pick.  They won’t take West Virginia because of their lack of notoriety.  This means that the Fiesta will take an at-large team.  The smart choice comes down to three teams right now: Auburn, Ohio State, and Oregon.  Geography probably eliminates Auburn as a choice.  So it comes down to Ohio State and Oregon.  The Buckeyes have two losses but they are to the number 2 and 3 teams in the nation by very slim margins.  The Ducks have only one loss but it was to USC by 32.  Ohio State has been to the Fiesta Bowl two of the past three years which means that they might want some variety and the Fiesta has tie-ins with the Pac-10 which could give the Ducks some leverage (not to mention last year’s 1-loss Pac-10 team, Cal, got snubbed from the BCS).  What it comes down to though is that a Notre Dame-Ohio State match-up would have much more national appeal than a Notre Dame-Oregon game would (read: more $$$).  If I had to pick I would say that Ohio State gets the spot even though almost everything besides the money says that Oregon should probably get an invite.

My Top 25
1. (1) USC 11-0
2. (2) Texas 11-0
3. (3) Penn State 10-1
4. (4) LSU 10-1
5. (5) Virginia Tech 10-1
6. (6) Ohio State 9-2
7. (7) Oregon 10-1
8. (8) Auburn 9-2
9. (10) Notre Dame 9-2
10. (11) Miami 9-2
11. (13) Georgia 9-2
12. (15) UCLA 9-1
13. (12) Alabama 9-2
14. (14) West Virginia 9-1
15. (16) TCU 10-1
16. (17) Louisville 8-2
17. (18) Boston College 8-3
18. (19) Wisconsin 9-3
19. (21) Texas Tech 9-2
20. (9) Fresno State 8-3
21. (23) Florida 8-3
22. (22) Michigan 7-4
23. (20) Georgia Tech 7-4
24. (NR) Iowa 7-4
25. (NR) Clemson 7-4

BCS Outlook
Rose: USC vs. Texas
Orange: Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Fiesta: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

What if USC loses?  Texas?  Both?
If USC Loses
Rose: Texas vs. Penn State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

If Texas Loses
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: Colorado vs. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU vs. West Virginia

If Both Lose
Rose: Penn State vs. LSU*
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Fiesta: Colorado vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
*It depends on the nature of USC’s loss.  If it’s a very close game then USC still might get a chance to play in the national championship.